4Q 2022 quarterly results

Highlights

Underlying replacement cost profit* $4.8 billion 

• Underlying replacement cost profit for the quarter was $4.8 billion, compared with $8.2 billion for the previous quarter. Compared to the third quarter, the result was impacted by a below average gas marketing and trading result after the exceptional result in the third quarter, lower oil and gas realizations, a higher level of refinery turnaround and maintenance activity, and lower marketing margins and seasonally lower volumes. An underlying ETR* of 40% in the fourth quarter brings the full year underlying ETR* to 34%. 
• Reported profit for the quarter was $10.8 billion, compared with a loss of $2.2 billion for the third quarter 2022. The reported result for the fourth quarter is adjusted by inventory holding losses net of tax of $1.1 billion and a gain for adjusting items* net of tax of $7.1 billion to derive the underlying replacement cost profit. Adjusting items include favourable fair value accounting effects* of $13.2 billion before tax, primarily due to a decrease in forward gas prices compared to the end of the third quarter.
   

Net debt* reduced to $21.4 billion; further $2.75 billion share buyback announced 

• Operating cash flow* in the quarter was $13.6 billion including a working capital release (after adjusting for inventory holding losses*, fair value accounting effects and other adjusting items) of $4.2 billion (see page 31).
• Capital expenditure* in the fourth quarter and full year was $7.4 billion and $16.3 billion respectively. Within this, inorganic spend was $3.5 billion in the fourth quarter and full year, including $3.0 billion for Archaea Energy, net of adjustments, and $0.5 billion for the earlier than expected completion of the acquisition of EDF Energy Services.
  
• During the fourth quarter, bp completed share buybacks of $3.2 billion. The $2.5 billion share buyback programme announced with the third quarter results was completed on 3 February 2023.
• In the fourth quarter, bp generated surplus cash flow* of $5.1 billion and intends to execute a $2.75 billion share buyback from surplus cash flow prior to announcing its first-quarter-2023 results. bp has now announced share buybacks from surplus cash flow equivalent to 60% of cumulative surplus cash flow since the start of 2021.
• Net debt fell for the eleventh successive quarter to reach $21.4 billion at the end of the fourth quarter. 
   

Growing distributions; updating disciplined financial frame

• A resilient dividend remains bp’s first priority within its disciplined financial frame. It is underpinned by a cash balance point* of $40 per barrel Brent, $11 per barrel RMM and $3 per mmBtu Henry Hub (all 2021 real).
• For the fourth quarter, bp has announced a dividend per ordinary share of 6.610 cents an increase of around 10%. This increase is underpinned by strong underlying performance and supported by the confidence we have in delivering higher adjusted EBITDA* as a result of our updated investment plans.
• bp is committed to maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating, targeting further progress within an 'A' grade credit rating. For 2023 bp intends to allocate 40% of surplus cash flow to further strengthening the balance sheet.
• bp continues to focus on disciplined investment allocation. For 2023 bp expects capital expenditure of $16-18 billion and for 2024-30 now expects capital expenditure in a range of $14-18 billion including inorganic capital expenditure*.
• For 2023 and subject to maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating, bp remains committed to using 60% of surplus cash flow for share buybacks.
• Based on bp’s current forecasts, at around $60 per barrel Brent and subject to the board’s discretion each quarter, bp expects to be able to deliver share buybacks of around $4.0 billion per annum, at the lower end of its capital expenditure range, and have capacity for an annual increase in the dividend per ordinary share of around 4%. 
   

Continued progress in transformation to an Integrated Energy Company 

• In a separate announcement, bp has today provided an update on the significant progress made in executing its transformation to an Integrated Energy Company (IEC) since outlining its new strategy.
  • In resilient hydrocarbons bp has accelerated its biogas strategy - part of its bioenergy Transition Growth Engine – completing the acquisition of Archaea Energy a leading US biogas company. Delivering on its focus on cost and efficiency, in 2022 bp delivered its lowest upstream unit production cost* since 2006 and highest upstream plant reliability* on record.
  • In convenience and mobility bp continues to make strategic progress, announcing an exclusive agreement in the UK with Marks and Spencer (M&S) to install fast(a) charge points to around 70 of their stores, adding up to 900 charge points within the next two years; and increasing the number of EV charge points by over 65% versus 2021.
  • In low carbon energy bp has continued to make rapid progress building its portfolio of green hydrogen* projects, signing memoranda of understanding (MoUs) with both Mauritania and Egypt to explore the potential for large scale green hydrogen developments. 

* For items marked with an asterisk throughout this document, definitions are provided in the Glossary on page 36

Results presentation

The webcast presentation was hosted by chief executive officer, Bernard Looney; chief financial officer, Murray Auchincloss; EVP productions & operations, Gordon Birrell; EVP customers & products, Emma Delaney; EVP gas & low carbon energy, Anja-Isabel Dotzenrath; and EVP trading & shipping, Carol Howle. The results presentation was followed by a question and answer session.