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Despite the strong long-term impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, Africa’s demand for electricity increases strongly, with wind and solar deployment increasing exponentially under all three scenarios
growth in primary energy in 2019-2050 under all scenarios
3x to 5x
increase in power generation in 2050-2019
25x to 112x
increase in wind and solar deployment in 2019-2050
41% to -75%
net change in CO₂ emissions by 2050
The share of electricity in total final consumption of energy increases from 10% to 20%-54%, depending on the scenario
The share of wind and solar in electricity generation grows from 3% today to almost 70% in Accelerated and Net Zero
Natural gas production increases only in New Momentum to reach 10% of total global production from 6% today
Projections
The long-term impact of the Russia Ukraine war on economic growth is negative and significant, Africa grows at an average rate of 2.6% a year in 2019-2050, down from around 4% over the past 20 years.
Primary energy consumption increases in all three scenarios, with renewables multiplying by a factor of two.
Wind and solar used in electricity generation increase from around 30 TWh in 2019 to 650 TWh in New Momentum to 3,000 TWh in Net Zero.
The large increase in renewable penetration reduces the carbon intensity of the electricity sector from around 575 gr/kWh to around 320 gr/kWh in New Momentum. The sector is virtually decarbonized in Net Zero.
Modern bioenergy increases in all scenarios, between 15%-110%. On the other hand, traditional biomass used in the building sectors declines 90% in Accelerated and around 99% in Net Zero.
Oil’s share in Africa’s fuel mix declines under all scenarios, falling from 25% in 2019 to between 20% and 8% in 2050.
Natural gas is more resilient. The share of natural gas in total primary energy increases to 20% in New Momentum by 2050 from 16% 2019. However, there is a decrease in the other two scenarios with this share falling to 7-12%.
Coal consumption is resilient in New Momentum with its share in the primary energy mix falling from 13% to 11% in 2019-2050.
Production of oil declines in all scenarios in Africa. Oil production decreases sharply from 9 Mb/d today to 2 Mb/d in Accelerated and 3 Mb/d in New Momentum.
Net CO2 emissions increase by 48% in New Momentum, due to the relatively high share of fossil fuels in the energy mix in this scenario. However, in Net Zero, net emissions decrease by 75% and by 42% in Accelerated.