Global insights

Projections

• The world’s economy grows at a rate of 2.4% a year in 2019-2050, down from 2.6% in the previous outlook, reflecting the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war.
• Final energy demand peaks in the 2020s in Accelerated and Net Zero, reflecting significant gains in energy efficiency. In contrast, it continues to grow until around 2040 in New Momentum, driven by increasing consumption in emerging markets.
• Renewables expand rapidly over the outlook, with their share in primary energy increasing from 12% in 2019 to 35-64% by 2050.
• Electricity more than doubles by 2050 in Accelerated and Net Zero and grows by 86% in New Momentum.
• Oil demand declines in all scenarios, as its use in transport is displaced by lower-carbon alternatives. Global oil demand falls from 98 Mb/d in 2019 to between 21 and 73 Mb/d in 2050.
• Coal demand strongly declines in all scenarios, with its share in primary energy falling from 25% in 2019 to between 3% and 13% in 2050.
• In contrast, global natural gas demand in New Momentum is around 20% above 2019 levels driven by growing use from emerging markets, especially in power generation. However, natural gas demand is 40% lower than 2019 levels in Accelerated and 55% lower in Net Zero.
• Low-carbon hydrogen demand increases to nearly 300 Mt in Accelerated and over 450 Mt in Net Zero, reflecting its growing use in sectors which are difficult or costly to electrify.
• Modern bioenergy demand grows in all scenarios, from 24 EJ in 2019 to around 50 EJ in New Momentum and 65 EJ in in Accelerated and Net Zero by 2050.
•  Carbon emissions fall by around 30% in New Momentum, 75% in Accelerated and 95% in Net Zero relative to 2019 levels.