Country insight – India

Projections

• India’s economy grows at a rate of 4.7% a year in 2019-2050, down from 7.4% a year over the past 20 years.
• Primary energy grows strongly in all three scenarios, more than doubling between 2019-2050. Average growth per year is between 2.4% and 2.6%. As result of this strong growth, India accounts for around 14% of the global primary energy consumption in 2050 across all scenarios, up from around 7% in 2019.
• The share of coal in total primary energy has been broadly stable around 2019 levels (45%) over the past 40 years. However, coal’s share declines in all scenarios, reaching between 6% and 33% by 2050.
• India’s natural gas production grows in all scenarios, up to 59-132 Bcm in 2050 (from 27 Bcm in 2019).
• The share of natural gas in total primary energy grows in all scenarios, increasing from 5% in 2019 to 7-11% in 2050, supported by industry and heavy road transport demand.
• Renewable energy grows strongly in all scenarios, at an average of 4-6% a year. As a result, renewable energy becomes the largest source of primary energy in 2050 in Accelerated and Net Zero, and the largest together with coal in New Momentum. 

• Electricity generation in 2050 is around four times of that in 2019 in New Momentum and Accelerated, and five times in Net Zero, with solar and wind power accounting for 57% to 95% of that growth.
• Solar and wind installed capacities in 2050 reach 1.3-2.2 TW and 0.3-1.2TW, respectively, depending on the scenarios.
• Hydrogen demand grows by a factor of four in New Momentum up to a twelvefold increase in Net Zero. In 2050 green hydrogen represents 47% of total production in New Momentum and 80% in Net Zero.
• Carbon emissions vary significantly by scenario. In New Momentum, emissions increase by around 85% in 2050. In Accelerated and Net Zero, emissions decrease by 30% and 77%, respectively.