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Oil and gas continue to play a significant role, both in terms of share of primary energy and share of global production, but renewable energy grows by more than three times the global average
growth in primary energy in 2019-2050 under all scenarios
15% to 60%
share of renewables in primary energy in 2050
64% to 525%
growth in hydrogen generation in 2019-2050
-3% to -84%
net change in CO2e emissions by 2050
Under all three scenarios, the Middle East’s primary energy consumption grows by over 20%
Renewable energy grows strongly in all scenarios, becoming the largest energy source in Accelerated and Net Zero
The Middle East continues its role as a major oil and gas producer, growing its share of global output in all scenarios
Projections
Primary energy grows steadily in the Middle East under all three scenarios, by just under 1% a year in 2019-2050, down from 4.2% a year over the past 20 years.
Renewable energy is the fastest growing source of primary energy in the outlook in the Middle East, growing at a pace of 13-18% per year to 2050 across the scenarios, well above the global average rate of renewables growth. Its share in primary energy grows from less than 1% in 2019, to 15% by 2050 in New Momentum, 46% in Accelerated and 60% in Net Zero.
Electricity generation more than doubles in all scenarios by 2050. Power grows its share in total final consumption, especially in the second half of the outlook, to between 23%-48% in 2050.
Natural gas the largest source of primary energy in New Momentum, its share remaining above 50%, similar to levels seen over the past five years. In Accelerated and Net Zero, its share declines from the 2030s onwards, to 31% and 23% by 2050 respectively.
The share of oil in primary energy declines across the scenarios, from 45% in 2019 to 11%-31% by 2050. The decline is fastest in Accelerated and Net Zero, driven mainly by faster decarbonization of the electricity sector in the first half of the outlook.
The region’s shares of global oil and natural gas production increase in all three scenarios. In oil, its share nearly doubles in Accelerated and Net Zero, to around 60% by 2050, and increases to 45% in New Momentum.
Hydrogen production grows for use in industry, transport and for export. Growth in production between 2019 and 2050 ranges from 64% in New Momentum, to a more than five-fold increase in Net Zero.
Carbon emissions decline by just -0.1% per year in New Momentum, while in Accelerated and Net Zero they decrease by -2.8% and -5.7% per year respectively. The region accounts for around 10% of the carbon emissions sequestered into CCS globally in Accelerated and Net Zero in 2050.