The prospects for natural gas depend on the outcome of two significant but opposing trends: increasing demand in emerging economies as they grow and industrialize, offset by a shift away from natural gas to lower-carbon energy led by the developed world. The net impact of these opposing trends on global gas demand depends on the pace of the energy transition.
LNG trade increases robustly in the near term but the range of uncertainty widens post 2030, with continuing demand for LNG in emerging markets as they grow and industrialize, offset by falling import demand in developed markets as they transition to lower carbon energy sources.
The US and Middle East establish themselves as the main global supply hubs for LNG exports, with the prospects for Russian LNG exports scarred by the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war.