Global oil demand plateaus over the next 10 years or so before declining over the rest of the outlook, driven in part by the falling use of oil in road transport as vehicles become more efficient and are increasingly fuelled by alternative energy sources.
The role of oil falls across all modes of transport, reflecting a shift to alternative, low-carbon energy sources. That shift is dominated by electrification in road transport and by bio- and hydrogen-derived fuels in aviation and marine.
The composition of global oil supplies shifts over time, as US tight oil grows over the rest of this decade after which it declines as the most productive locations are exhausted and OPEC competes to increase its market share. There is a sustained decline in Russian production.