bp’s Energy Outlook 2023 uses three scenarios (Accelerated, Net Zero and New Momentum) to consider a range of possible pathways for the global energy system to 2050 and to help shape a resilient strategy for bp.
The scenarios are not predictions of what is likely to happen or what bp would like to happen. Rather, the scenarios are designed to span a wide range of the outcomes possible out to 2050. In doing so, they inform bp’s core beliefs about the energy transition and help shape a strategy that is resilient to the many uncertainties surrounding the speed and nature of the energy transition.
The pace and extent of decarbonization in Accelerated and Net Zero are broadly aligned with a range of IPCC scenarios which are consistent with maintaining global average temperature rises well below 2°C and 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in 2100 respectively (see annex for more details of IPCC scenarios used).
Global energy demand measured at the final point of use (total final consumption) peaks in all three scenarios as gains in energy efficiency accelerate, more than offsetting the upwards impact of increasing living standards across much of the emerging world.
The changing composition of energy demand over the outlook is characterized by four trends: a gradual decline in the role of hydrocarbons, rapid growth in renewable energy, and an increasing electrification of the world, supported by low-carbon hydrogen in processes and activities which are hard to electrify.