Country insight – US | Energy economics

Highlights

8% to 23%

range of decline in primary energy from 2019-2050 under all scenarios

50% to 60%

share of power in primary energy in 2050

43% to 70%

share of renewables in primary energy in 2050

30% to 50%

net decline in CO₂ emissions by 2030 compared to 2005

The US economy grows at a rate of 1.8% a year in 2019-2050, down from 2.0% a year over the past 20 years.
Primary energy consumption falls by 8-23% in all three scenarios, an acceleration on the decline of 2% over the past two decades.
Net CO₂ emissions fall sharply from 2019, by 20-40% by 2030 and by at least 60% by 2050 across all scenarios.
Wind and solar power’s share in the electricity generation mix increases from around 10% today to 60% in New Momentum, 70% in Accelerated and 72% in Net Zero by 2050.
Coal’s share in the primary energy mix is phased out from 12% in 2019 to less than 1% by 2050 in all scenarios.
Oil’s share in the energy mix falls from almost 40% today to 12% in Accelerated, 5% in Net Zero and 21% in 2050 in New Momentum. Demand falls from 19 Mb/d to a range of 3 Mb/d in Net Zero to 11Mb/d in New Momentum by 2050.
The share of natural gas consumption in total primary energy decreases in Accelerated and Net Zero to 15% and 13% respectively and retains a share of 27% in New Momentum by 2050 from 32% today.

US LNG exports double from 2021 levels by 2030 in Accelerated and New Momentum. By 2050, the US accounts for 30% of LNG trade in New Momentum and around 20% in the other scenarios, from 18% in 2021.
Hydrogen production for use in industry and transport ranges from 27-67 Mt by 2050, with green hydrogen accounting for around half of this, and the US being a net exporter. In Net Zero the US accounts for around 15% of global hydrogen trade in 2050.
By 2050, the US accounts for almost 20% of the carbon sequestered globally in the Accelerated and Net Zero scenarios and over 30% in New Momentum.